The city of Belem,seen in a drone image foregrounded with the Amazon rainforest (Picture: Reuters)

While delegates at the COP30 conference in Brazil argue over whether ‘a transition away from fossil fuels’ should even be on the agenda,a forecaster gave a stark warning of what is at stake.

There has been much discussion of whether it is now truly possible to limit warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial climate,as pledged in the Paris Agreement ten years ago.

Forecaster Jim Dale told Metro people can be misled by the numbers,as they sound relatively small.

But he gave a metaphor which is all the more apt in flu season: ‘You only have to take your own body.

‘Small increments make a massive distance’

‘If you,at 36.5°C average,were to to go up 1.5°C,you’d be in bed. You’d be feeling ill. Go up 2.5°C,you’d be in hospital.

‘Go up 3°C… you’d be dead [if it was for any sustained period of time]. And that’s the way it is. That’s the easy way of looking this,that those small increments make a massive distance.’

Today was meant to be the closing day of the summit in Belem,but a large fire yesterday meant those attending had to be evacuated,with talks delayed and the schedule unclear.

Before the annual summit began on November 10,UN Secretary-General António Guterres had already acknowledged the world is likely to overshoot the target agreed ten years ago,at least temporarily.

He said: ‘The hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5°C.

‘Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit – starting at the latest in the early 2030s – is inevitable.

We need a paradigm shift to limit this overshoot’s magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down.’

‘2° of warming is going to be a lot worse’

Even if countries implemented their current pledges in full,it still put the world on course for over 2°C of warming,he added.

Mr Dale,who wrote ‘Surviving Extreme Weather: The Complete Climate Change Preparedness Manual’,told Metro we could see 2°C of warming within the next two decades.

‘1.5°C is dead,and 2° is the next step,’ he said. ‘If we’re already seeing the effects at 1.5°C,then 2° is going to be a lot worse.

A United Nations flag is displayed near the logo for the COP30 U.N. Climate Summit in Belem (Picture: AP)

‘If 2.5 is where we think we’re heading – relatively quickly,I’m talking about the next 20 years – then that’s catastrophe after catastrophe. It sounds like small numbers,2.5,1.5,but it’s not.

‘It’s got hugely significant impact. They are huge movements that will kill off parts of the ecosystems that we depend on,and even ourselves to a degree.’

Last year was the first to exceed 1.5°C globally,but the official documents of COP30 still state it as their goal,‘to limit both the magnitude and duration of overshooting’.

What does COP30 stand for?

COP30 stands for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).‘Parties’ refers to the nearly 200 countries that signed up to the original UN climate agreement of 1992.Mr Guterres had earlier told the opening plenary: ‘Even a temporary overshoot will have dramatic consequences. It could push ecosystems past irreversible tipping points,expose billions to unlivable conditions,and amplify threats to peace and security.‘Every fraction of a degree means more hunger,displacement,and loss – especially for those least responsible.‘This is moral failure – and deadly negligence.’Energy secretary Ed Miliband,who is leading the UK delegation at the talks,argued that the world is now investing twice as much in clean energy than in fossil fuels,and has already cut projected warming from 4°C,to 2.3°C.But he added: ‘We need to show our will to go further and faster to make efforts to keep warming to 1.5°C because that’s what it means to uphold the Paris Agreement,a pathway to keeping 1.5°C alive.’The UK has been among over 80 countries pushing for stronger wording on phasing out fossils fuels,which is opposed by states relying on oil for their economy.