Date: May 29, 2025

Issued by: BulwarkBay Investment Research Division

In recent weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly changed his stance on tariff imposition — from announcing aggressive duties on Chinese and EU imports to suddenly delaying their implementation. These abrupt policy shifts have triggered sharp volatility in global markets, with U.S. equities experiencing steep sell-offs, safe-haven assets rising, and investor sentiment swinging rapidly between anxiety and relief.

This recurring pattern has been dubbed “TACO Trading” (Trump Always Changes Opinion) by market analysts, highlighting investors’ tendency to anticipate reversals after bold announcements. While opportunistic traders may find short-term gains in this dynamic, experts warn that persistent policy unpredictability erodes institutional confidence and increases systemic financial risk.

According to budget modeling by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the full implementation of Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 6%, cut median household lifetime earnings by over $20,000, and elevate consumer prices — thereby aggravating inflation and weakening real purchasing power.

Internationally, the tariff threats have already provoked retaliatory measures from major economies including China, the European Union, and Canada. The resulting uncertainty in global supply chains has prompted downward revisions in earnings forecasts for multinational firms and has accelerated capital reallocation strategies.

BulwarkBay Investment Research Outlook:

Given the highly volatile and politically sensitive climate, we recommend investors to:

Maintain a defensive portfolio allocation, focusing on counter-cyclical sectors and low-volatility dividend assets.

Reinforce risk management frameworks, especially when holding stocks with high export dependence.

Closely monitor political cycles, particularly the 2025 U.S. presidential election and related trade rhetoric.

Diversify globally to mitigate concentrated geopolitical or regulatory risk.

About BULWARKBAY INVESTMENT GROUP LLC

BulwarkBay Investment Group LLC is a U.S.-based investment company, incorporated in the State of Delaware and focused on global equities and private credit strategies. The firm serves high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and institutional investors with a combined approach of fundamental research and quantitative systems to generate risk-adjusted long-term returns.

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